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Rupee’s Gaining Trend Continues Amid Supercharged Volatility In Global Markets

Rupee's Gaining Trend Continues Amid Supercharged Volatility In Global Markets

Rupee’s Gaining Trend Continues Amid Supercharged Volatility In Global Markets

The rupee continued its strengthening trend on Friday, albeit only slightly, as stable oil costs have offset any worries of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes after data showed the fastest rise in US inflation in four decades.

News agency, Reuters, had the rupee last trading at 76.28, a gain of about 0.2 per cent from Thursday’s close of 76.43, after opening at 76.43.

While PTI said, the rupee advanced a touch over 0.2 per cent to 76.27 against the US dollar in the opening trade on Friday, supported by positive domestic equities and a pullback in crude oil prices.

At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 76.34 against the US dollar, then gained momentum and touched 76.27, registering a gain of 16 paise from the previous close. On Thursday, the rupee had appreciated by 19 paise to close at 76.43 per dollar,  PTI added.

“Geopolitical risks have shifted, commodities have cooled, and emerging market currencies and equities have advanced,” said Kshitij Purohit, International and Commodities Lead at CapitalVia Global Research.

The BJP on Thursday returned to power in Uttar Pradesh, and also retained Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, while Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP scripted a stellar victory in Punjab, winning a three-fourth majority.

According to market experts, the outcome of these state elections will provide policy continuity and stability, which is important for the market.

“The market texture indicates a strong possibility of range-bound activity in the near future… so buying on the downside and selling on rallies,” Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research for retail at Kotak Securities, told Reuters.

Aiding the market were expectations of a fall in oil prices and the government having majority of votes in state elections, which offer stability for investment in emerging markets like India, Mr Chouhan added.

Still, tracking a global stocks slump, domestic bourses trade lower after opening in the green driven by risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict as talks between their foreign ministers on Thursday brought little respite.

The US and its allies are stepping up the pressure on Mosocw over Ukraine invasion as they are expected to move on Friday to revoke Russia’s “most favored nation” status over its invasion of Ukraine, multiple people familiar with the situation told Reuters.

Sentiment is also likely to sour as US inflation jumped to the largest increase in 40 years, indicating the Fed could move “more aggressively” to curb inflation.

“We’ve got a terrible macro backdrop (with) a serious inflation problem implying that we’re going to see much, much tighter monetary policy,” Rob Carnell, chief economist at ING told Reuters. Russia’s war against Ukraine was likely to make everything from energy and metals to agricultural goods a lot more expensive, he added.

Everybody’s incomes are going to get eroded. Global growth is going to get battered. What more do you need? “At some stage you probably will pull back much more sharply, but at the moment there’s still a bit of denial going on in markets,” said ING’s Mr Carnell.

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